(Photo: Oxfam international gallery/Flickr)

by Federico Guerrieri

Next December (7th to 15th), the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15) will take place in Copenhagen. As the Kyoto protocol will terminate by the end of 2012, this summit will be fundamental in order to find a new agreement on climate change.

There is no shortage of doubts that world leaders will be able to live up to the expectations. James Lovelock fears that the summit will be infested by ideologues and political and commercial lobbies aiming for short-term profit, but we must understand that human survival itself is at risk. Tom Burke, funding director of sustainable development company E3G, said that climate change is forever and “to fail in Copenhagen is to invite chaos in our lives as a permanent guest”.

Global worming is the first true global problem we have ever faced and we need every nation to partecipate if we are to find solution. According to Graciela Chichilnsky, who has worked in the Kyoto Protocol process creating and designing the carbon market, Copenhagen is our last chance to face the problem, it is a “do or die mission” to avert global warming. The main problem is the confrontation between the two largest emitters, United States and China. Graciela Chichilnsky thinks that the two nations alone could cause catastrophe for the world. The US does not want to limit its emission unless China does, but developing nations are not required to reduce emission without compensation.

Richer countries must find a way to assist developing nations in achieving cleaner industrialisation. Chichilnsky proposes a modest innovation of the carbon market and a modest expansion of existing law to incorporate “negative carbon” technologies and providing substantial funding for Africa, Latin America, and small island states towards this goal, something that would increase the chances of a successful agreement. Unfortunately, the European Union still cannot agree on its financing to developing countries.

According to Chichilnsky the United States has a unique political opportunity to be the nation spearheading the push for this critical change, a role the European Union itself would like to claim. We need a solution to the zero-sum game of escalating emissions. Otherwise, we face a new cold war, this time all about warming.

The divide between rich and poor nations led to an African boycott of UN climate talks in Barcelona at the beginning of this week. African countries wanted to put pressure on rich nations to make them cut deeper in their greenhouse gas emissions.

US top diplomat on climate change Todd Stern said: “The divide between developed and developing countries that has run down the center of climate change discussions for the past 17 years is still alive and well”.(http://en.cop15.dk/)

Bruno Sekoli, head of the Lesotho national climate office and chair of the least developed countries group of the world’s poorest nations said, “Africa had no choice because of the reality of climate change. The negotiations have been going a long time and have not shown much progress. It’s not about money. Climate change is an issue of life or death for us. The developed countries have to shift policies. A bad deal is not good for Africa or vulnerable countries”. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/04/africa-walk-out-climate-talks-barcelona)

The talk in Barcelona have been a bad preamble for the Copenhagen conference. Leaders must understand that, as Tom Burke said, “to fail in Copenhagen is to invite chaos in our lives as a permanent guest”.

As we have already stated in a recent post, European Alternatives thinks that Europe can play an important role in Copenhagen, but it is very important that the European Union acknowledge its responsibility for the damage caused to the environment and to the Third World countries. The EU must commit to achieving the reduction of gas emission in Europe , finding a coherent policy about the levels of compensation it is willing to provide to developing countries, before asking the same of other developed countries.
Copenhagen could be the dawn of a new cooperative global future. But political short-sight might transform the appointment into the living proof of the incapacity of today’s leaders to stand up to the global challenges they face.